Semicon Briefing

ASML raises its 2026 revenue guidance to €36–40 billion, citing increased capex plans from TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix – customers are accelerating capacity expansions for the post-2026 period. Needham simultaneously raises its TSMC price target to $480 USD, underscoring the structural reassessment of AI infrastructure.

Japanese materials giant JSR has opened a research center with Applied Materials for advanced planarization processes in Taiwan, with high-level participation from TSMC R&D. The cooperation targets 2nm production and consolidates the supply chain for EUV-compatible materials.

China's imports of chip manufacturing equipment from Malaysia and Singapore exceeded direct US supplies for the first time in 2025, which fell to an eight-year low. This demonstrates that existing export controls are being systematically circumvented through third countries – with direct consequences for the effectiveness of the US sanctions regime.

The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has lost nearly one-fifth of its licensing personnel, leaving already-approved H200 orders for China unprocessed for months despite White House clearance. This simultaneously blocks shipments to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, structurally harming US chip exporters.

As the first subsidy wave expires, EU policymakers are revising their strategy: focus is shifting from mega-fabs to fabless models and ecosystem support. ESMC (TSMC/Bosch/Infineon/NXP) in Dresden remains the anchor project, but the debate over Europe's structural weaknesses in the advanced-node segment is intensifying.

The sale of R&D units to Infineon (approximately 230 employees) is expected to close in Q2 2026; proceeds will retire high-interest bonds of €625 million and $400 million USD, reducing annual financing costs from €300 million to below €150 million. This new aspect – concrete debt reduction strategy and closing timeline – goes beyond the previously announced deal.